The world has enough fossil fuel projects planned to meet global energy demand projections until 2050 and governments should stop issuing new oil, gas and coal licences, according to a major study aimed at political leaders.
If governments implement the changes promised to keep the world from breaching its climate targets, no new fossil fuel projects will be needed, researchers at University College London and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) said on Thursday.
The data provided what they said was “a rigorous scientific basis” for global governments to ban new fossil fuel projects and begin a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry, encouraging investment in clean energy alternatives .
By setting a “clear and immediate demand”, political leaders will be able to set a new norm around the future of fossil fuels against which the industry can be held “immediately accountable”, the researchers said.
Published in the journal Science, the paper analyzed projections of global energy demand for oil and gas, as well as coal and gas-fired electricity, using a wide range of scenarios compiled for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that limited global warming. within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
He found that in addition to no need for new fossil fuel extraction, no new coal and gas-fired power generation was needed in a net-zero future.
The paper is expected to revive criticism of the UK’s Conservative government, which has promised to offer hundreds of licenses for oil and gas exploration to boost the North Sea industry, a policy that has emerged as a major dividing line with the Labor Party. opposition before the 4th July general elections.
Labor has vowed to end new North Sea licenses if it comes to power and also plans to increase taxes on profits made from existing oil and gas fields to help fund investment in green energy projects through a new government-owned company. Great British Energy.
Dr Steve Pye, a co-author of the report from the UCL Institute of Energy, said: “Importantly, our research proves that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed rate showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects.”
“The clarity this rule brings should help focus policy on targeting the ambitious scale of renewable and clean energy investment required, while managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and fair way,” it said. Ask.
The report expanded on the work of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has warned in recent years that no new fossil fuel projects were compatible with the global goal of building a net-zero energy system.
The IEA ruled out any new investment in long-standing fossil fuel projects, but acknowledged that continued investment in existing oil and gas assets and already approved projects would be required.
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Dr Fergus Green, from the political science department at UCL, said: “Our research draws lessons from past changes in global ethical norms, such as slavery and nuclear weapons testing. These cases show that norms resonate when they carry simple demands to which powerful actors can be immediately held accountable.
“Complex, long-term targets such as ‘net zero emissions by 2050’ lack these characteristics, but ‘no new fossil fuel projects’ is a clear and immediate demand against which all can fairly be judged current governments and the fossil fuel industry. .”
The outgoing head of the UK’s Climate Change Committee, Chris Stark, said last month that the concept of net zero had become a political slogan used to launch a “dangerous” culture war on the climate and could be better scrapped.
“If it’s just a slogan, if it’s seen as a sort of springboard for a bunch of cultural issues, then I’m very comfortable taking it down,” Stark said. “We hold it as a scientific objective, but we don’t need to use it as a badge that we carry in every program.”
Green said a political stance to support new fossil fuel projects should “serve as a litmus test” of whether a government was serious about tackling the climate crisis. “If they are allowing new fossil fuel projects, then they are not serious,” he added.